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NLL FANTASY: BUCHANAN'S YOUR MAN

Justin Rubino's weekly look at all things Fantasy Lacrosse

03/10/2009

Ever since I had my grade lowered on a freshman-year paper about Babe Ruth for starting my work with a cliche, I have often tried to avoid that segment of speech when possible. While I still maintain my sentiments from back then that a professor three years my senior has no place telling me when and when not to use cliches, he did have a point: they are weak, overused and can usually be substituted with something of substance and originality.

With that bit of save-face out of the way, I apologize for my following actions.

Patience is a virtue. And it's a virtue that I failed to practice.

I was so caught up in trying to find the second-half pickup of the year; I failed to exercise patience, one of the most important rules of fantasy sports. I can sit at my desk and preach patience through the keyboard until I develop Carpal Tunnel Syndrome, but (here we go, again) actions speak louder than words. In a perfect world, I could go back two weeks and take a mulligan on my actions.

It's not so much that Rochester rookie Jason Henhawk is not still fantasy-relevant and worthy of some talk, but anointing him as a sure-fire starter for Week 9 and beyond was a proverbial swing-and-a-miss. Rochester managed a season-high 18 goals against Toronto, which is a good sign, but Henhawk only tallied one goal and two loose balls (a bad sign coming in the form of 1.2 fantasy points). Instead, Shawn Evans channeled his inner Mark Steenhuis and nearly doubled his goal output through seven games (nine goals) by scoring seven against the Rock while adding seven assists and eleven loose balls. Shawn Williams (five goals, five assists, five loose balls) and Gary Gait (three goals, three assists, three loose balls) had nice games too, but Evans' 11.6 fantasy points was a shocker. If Rochester puts up 18 goals again, I'm willing to bet that Evans nets less than 11.6 fantasy points and Henhawk gets more than 1.2. Henhawk remains a must-own because of his potential, but his must-start status was a bit premature as Evans, Williams, Gait and even Craig Point saw more opportunities than the rookie against Toronto.

However, that's not the point. The point is that Week 9 produced the real second-half fantasy pickup, and it's another rookie:

Kevin Buchanan.

The Ohio State product was impossible to miss against Toronto on February 27, scoring five goals and one assist in addition to his seven loose balls. The next night in Buffalo, he produced an encore of two goals, three assists and six loose balls. His first two games prior to that final weekend of February were somewhat uneventful (2.4 and 1.4 fantasy points), but the 6.2 and 4.1 fantasy points in career games three and four deserve your attention.

There is no doubting that the 11th overall pick in this past year's entry draft has the talent to produce numbers in the league. However, as is the case with a fantasy newcomer, his situation needs to be evaluated before making rash decisions. It's like solving a math problem, but without the wanting-to-gauge-your-eyes-out side effects.

Without Buchanan in the lineup, Minnesota (beginning with Week 1) has scored 11, 10, 9, 8 and 12 goals in five games. In the four games when Buchanan has been in the lineup, Minnesota has scored 8, 12, 13 and 16 goals. Simple math here shows that three of Minnesota's four highest goal totals this year have come with Buchanan in the lineup, and his breakout weekend coincided with the two highest goal totals (including a win at Buffalo).

Some more mathematical calculations show that, in addition to the team scoring more when he is on the field, Buchanan has been more of a catalyst than an observer during that time. Against Buffalo, his eight total shots (six on target) were tied for third most on the team. He also fired eight shots (seven on target) the night before, again good for a third place tie on the team. More so, though he has only fired 34 shots, his 26.5% shooting percentage is the best on Minnesota outside of Colin Achenbach's one goal on two shots.

These numbers should lead one to believe that Buchanan's spot in the Swarm lineup is a safe one.

While it is true that the increased offensive production in Minnesota has also come on the heels of the trade for Aaron Wilson, this fact does not diminish Buchanan's contributions or future return potential. Wilson, as well as Minnesota's top two point-leaders (Ryan Ward and Sean Pollock) are right-handed. Buchanan, a left-handed player, can help provide the scoring punch that fellow left-handers Kevin Ross and Chad Culp have been unable to achieve on a consistent basis.

All of this equates into Buchanan representing a great late-season fantasy pickup. With only four weeks left in the fantasy regular season, viable starting options do not often appear on the waiver wire. Shrewd free agent maneuvering can be your best friend during this time of the year, and your first post-All-Star addition should be Buchanan.

But please, do not take this mea culpa as a recommendation to cut ties with Henhawk, either. If there is anything you take from this in addition to Buchanan's value, remember: patience is a virtue. The upside is still there with Henhawk, but an overview of the Knighthawks lineup and scoring distribution while at full-strength shows that he is not ready to be started every week. By comparison, Buchanan appears to be primed for a key-contributing role if Minnesota is to continue its increased goal production.

Translation: pick him up.

His worst game thus far (1.4 fantasy points) actually came in Philadelphia (his opponent this week), so it would be best if you are in a situation where you can afford to keep him on your bench. But, if you are in a bind, I think he is worth starting. Either way, if he has another big week, you will not have another chance to grab him.

With the player notes now part of the regular fantasy rotation, I'll hold off on elaborating too much on certain players for this weekend; Call it a ploy to make you come back for more fantasy goodness this week. However, everyone deserves a sneak peek:

Calgary @ Edmonton
Edmonton is the only team averaging less than 10 points/game (9.2), and Calgary's big, physical defense is allowing the third least goals/game (10.4). Calgary is also tied for the second highest goals/game clip (12.6) while Edmonton is giving up the third most goals/game (12.4). This all bodes well for the usual suspects in Calgary.

Colorado @ San Jose
San Jose is the team tied with Calgary for the most goals/game (12.6) and has scored less than 13 goals in a game only once since January 18 (a span of seven games). That offense will be tested against Andrew Leyshon, who boasts the second best GAA in the league (9.96). Colorado has scored nine goals in each of its past two games, both road losses (including one in San Jose).

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto is 1-3 on the road, giving up an average of 17.5 goals in those four games. Boston is 3-2 at home, giving up an average of 9.4 goals in the five contests. Dawson and Veltman are absolute must-starts and the supporting cast in Boston also holds value this week.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Minnesota has already been discussed at length, and Philadelphia is 2-0 at home against teams not from Boston (including a 13-12 win vs. Minnesota), scoring 13 goals in each game. I like both offenses in this one.

Buffalo @ Rochester
Since the trade for Craig Point, Rochester has average 16.5 goals scored in two games, and up in the Buffalo goalie-rotation this week is Mike Thompson's 12.27 GAA. Buffalo is averaging a league-best 15.2 goals/game on the season, but go up against Pat O'Toole and his 10.2 GAA (fourth best in the league). I really like some Rochester players in this one; they seem to be finding their stride. Don't even think about sitting Steenhuis or Tavares are must starts.

As stated, expect more to come on individual players later in the week. In the meantime, feel free to hit me up with questions and comments at jrubino@nll.com.

Otherwise, you'll just have to be patient.

--Justin Rubino/NLL.com