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Fantasy Mailbag: Week #13

03/28/2013, 4:45pm EDT
By Alexander Hinkley for NLL.com

Have a question? Email fantasy@nll.com!

The weekly Fantasy Mailbag column answers your questions about the 2013 NLL Fantasy Game. (Photo: Brad Watson)

The Fantasy Mailbag column answers fantasy questions from our readers to help you manage your team throughout the season. Have a question related to the 2013 NLL Fantasy Game? Want to know how something works or advice about a specific player or matchup? Email your question to fantasy@nll.com and it just might be answered in the next edition of the Fantasy Mailbag.

How are player value changes actually determined?

There is no hard-and-fast formula for calculating a player’s value such as “if player A scores X amount of points, then his value goes up/down by this amount.” A variety of factors are taken into account when determining price changes each week. For example, Adam Jones was priced at $23 last week and scored 12 fantasy points. His value ended up going down despite the fact Jeff Shattler was priced at $25, scored 11 fantasy points, but did not receive a reduction in value. Why is this?

How a player has been doing recently is generally one thing that is taken into consideration when determining if a player’s value should go up or down after a good/bad game. Sticking to the above example, Shattler is averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game over the course of his last three games (that’s including last weekend’s 11 point performance). He has also scored 20 or more points in four out of his last five. One bad game typically isn’t going to cause a big-name player’s value to go down if they have been doing well week-in and week-out before that. If Shattler ends up having another disappointing game this weekend, his value will probably be reduced.

Adam Jones, however, averages only 16.3 fantasy points per game over the course of his last three games. He has scored 20 or more points in just one out of his last five. After several weeks of not playing up to his current cost, Jones’s value ended up finally going down. So it wasn’t just one bad fantasy game that caused Jones to go down by a buck, it was an accumulation of several recent disappointing fantasy performances.

Generally, you should be looking for trends in a player’s performance rather than banking on him having one good or bad game that weekend. Obviously there are sometimes outliers where a player will do so well (or so poorly) that their value has to be changed. Corey Small’s 31 fantasy points against the Bandits last weekend is one good example of that. On the other hand, Jeff Shattler’s value might have gone down despite his recent history had he scored five points instead of 11.

Here are a few guidelines that can be used to help predict what will happen: if a player scores zero fantasy points, this will more often than not result in a decrease in value. If a player scores double as many fantasy points compared to their current price, they will likely be going up in value. Again, this isn’t always the case though. Say there was a defenseman who is priced at $4. For the past four weeks he has scored 2 points, 3 points, 1 point, and 2 then points. His cost has actually been going down to the point it is now at $4. Let’s say now he suddenly scored 8 fantasy points in a game. His value might not necessarily go up after this one game because of the trend he was previously on.

Players who have back-to-back games also tend to have some variations in pricing rules. For example, John Lafontaine of the Edmonton Rush scored just one point in Edmonton’s first game against Buffalo last weekend but then had 12 points against Toronto in the second game. Despite that second game’s performance, his value remained steady because the first game was pretty bad and “balanced things out.”

Keep in mind that people get to pick which game of a back-to-back weekend they have scored but the value change applies to both people regardless. It would make more sense to have someone see Lintz score 12 points and not go up in value than it would for someone to see him score just one point and yet still go up.

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Tag(s): Fantasy