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WK
1
Fri, Dec 1
19:00:00
Saskatchewan
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Fri, Dec 1
22:00:00
Albany
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Fri, Dec 1
22:00:00
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Sat, Dec 2
19:00:00
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Sat, Dec 2
19:30:00
Philadelphia
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WK
2
Sat, Dec 9
19:00:00
Philadelphia
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Buffalo
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19:30:00
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Sat, Dec 9
20:00:00
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Sat, Dec 9
22:00:00
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Sun, Dec 10
16:00:00
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WK
3
Fri, Dec 15
22:00:00
Saskatchewan
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Sat, Dec 16
13:00:00
Albany
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Sat, Dec 16
19:30:00
Halifax
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Sat, Dec 16
19:30:00
San Diego
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Sat, Dec 16
22:00:00
Georgia
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WK
4
Fri, Dec 22
20:00:00
Toronto
Panther City
Fri, Dec 22
21:00:00
Georgia
Colorado
Sat, Dec 23
19:00:00
Vancouver
Rochester
WK
5
Fri, Dec 29
18:30:00
Philadelphia
Halifax
Fri, Dec 29
19:30:00
Georgia
Buffalo
Fri, Dec 29
22:00:00
Rochester
San Diego
Sat, Dec 30
16:00:00
New York
Toronto
Sat, Dec 30
21:00:00
Las Vegas
Calgary
Sat, Dec 30
21:00:00
Vancouver
Colorado
Sun, Dec 31
20:00:00
Albany
Saskatchewan
WK
6
Sat, Jan 6
19:00:00
Halifax
Albany
Sat, Jan 6
19:30:00
Panther City
Georgia
Sat, Jan 6
19:30:00
Colorado
Buffalo
Sun, Jan 7
15:00:00
New York
Philadelphia
WK
7
Fri, Jan 12
18:30:00
Toronto
Halifax
Fri, Jan 12
22:00:00
San Diego
Las Vegas
Sat, Jan 13
19:00:00
Buffalo
Rochester
Sat, Jan 13
19:00:00
Saskatchewan
Philadelphia
Sat, Jan 13
19:30:00
Panther City
New York
Sat, Jan 13
19:30:00
Albany
Georgia
Sat, Jan 13
21:00:00
San Diego
Colorado
Sat, Jan 13
22:00:00
Calgary
Vancouver
WK
8
Fri, Jan 19
19:30:00
New York
Buffalo
Sat, Jan 20
19:00:00
Georgia
Toronto
Sat, Jan 20
19:00:00
San Diego
Albany
Sat, Jan 20
20:00:00
Vancouver
Saskatchewan
Sat, Jan 20
21:00:00
Calgary
Colorado
WK
9
Fri, Jan 26
22:00:00
Colorado
Vancouver
Sat, Jan 27
18:00:00
Rochester
Halifax
Sat, Jan 27
19:00:00
Buffalo
Toronto
Sat, Jan 27
19:30:00
Georgia
New York
Sat, Jan 27
19:30:00
San Diego
Philadelphia
Sat, Jan 27
22:00:00
Panther City
Las Vegas
WK
10
Fri, Feb 2
19:00:00
Halifax
Philadelphia
Fri, Feb 2
19:30:00
Vancouver
Georgia
Fri, Feb 2
21:00:00
New York
Calgary
Sat, Feb 3
19:00:00
Las Vegas
Albany
Sat, Feb 3
19:30:00
Rochester
Buffalo
Sat, Feb 3
20:00:00
Panther City
Saskatchewan
Sat, Feb 3
21:00:00
Toronto
Calgary
Sun, Feb 4
18:00:00
Colorado
San Diego
WK
11
Fri, Feb 9
18:30:00
Las Vegas
Halifax
Fri, Feb 9
20:00:00
Colorado
Panther City
Sat, Feb 10
19:00:00
Georgia
Rochester
Sat, Feb 10
19:00:00
Calgary
Toronto
Sat, Feb 10
19:30:00
San Diego
New York
Sat, Feb 10
22:00:00
Saskatchewan
Vancouver
WK
12
Fri, Feb 16
18:30:00
Buffalo
Halifax
Fri, Feb 16
22:00:00
Philadelphia
Las Vegas
Sat, Feb 17
19:00:00
Colorado
Albany
Sun, Feb 18
19:00:00
Halifax
Calgary
WK
13
Fri, Feb 23
21:00:00
New York
Colorado
Fri, Feb 23
22:00:00
Georgia
San Diego
Sat, Feb 24
19:00:00
Las Vegas
Rochester
Sat, Feb 24
19:00:00
Vancouver
Toronto
Sat, Feb 24
19:30:00
Albany
Buffalo
Sat, Feb 24
20:00:00
Halifax
Saskatchewan
Sat, Feb 24
21:00:00
Philadelphia
Calgary
Sun, Feb 25
16:00:00
Georgia
Panther City
WK
14
Fri, Mar 1
19:00:00
Georgia
Halifax
Fri, Mar 1
20:00:00
San Diego
Panther City
Fri, Mar 1
22:00:00
Toronto
Las Vegas
Fri, Mar 1
22:00:00
Buffalo
Vancouver
Sat, Mar 2
13:00:00
Calgary
Philadelphia
Sat, Mar 2
19:00:00
New York
Albany
Sat, Mar 2
21:00:00
Saskatchewan
Colorado
Sat, Mar 2
22:00:00
Toronto
San Diego
Sun, Mar 3
16:00:00
Rochester
Panther City
WK
15
Fri, Mar 8
19:00:00
Vancouver
Albany
Fri, Mar 8
19:30:00
Calgary
Georgia
Fri, Mar 8
19:30:00
Saskatchewan
Buffalo
Sat, Mar 9
17:00:00
Colorado
Toronto
Sat, Mar 9
19:00:00
Albany
Rochester
Sat, Mar 9
19:30:00
Las Vegas
New York
Sat, Mar 9
22:00:00
Halifax
San Diego
Sun, Mar 10
15:00:00
Panther City
Philadelphia
WK
16
Fri, Mar 15
18:30:00
Panther City
Halifax
Fri, Mar 15
21:00:00
San Diego
Calgary
Fri, Mar 15
22:00:00
Las Vegas
Vancouver
Sat, Mar 16
19:00:00
Rochester
Albany
Sat, Mar 16
19:00:00
Toronto
Buffalo
Sat, Mar 16
19:30:00
Philadelphia
Georgia
Sat, Mar 16
20:30:00
New York
Saskatchewan
WK
17
Fri, Mar 22
20:00:00
Buffalo
Panther City
Fri, Mar 22
21:00:00
Albany
Calgary
Sat, Mar 23
19:00:00
Halifax
Toronto
Sat, Mar 23
19:00:00
Vancouver
Philadelphia
Sat, Mar 23
19:30:00
Saskatchewan
New York
Sat, Mar 23
21:00:00
Rochester
Colorado
Sat, Mar 23
22:00:00
Las Vegas
San Diego
Sun, Mar 24
17:30:00
Saskatchewan
Georgia
WK
18
Sat, Mar 30
13:00:00
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Sat, Mar 30
19:00:00
Halifax
Rochester
Sat, Mar 30
19:30:00
Toronto
New York
Sat, Mar 30
22:00:00
Vancouver
Las Vegas
WK
19
Fri, Apr 5
21:00:00
Saskatchewan
Calgary
Fri, Apr 5
21:00:00
Buffalo
Colorado
Fri, Apr 5
22:00:00
Panther City
San Diego
Fri, Apr 5
22:00:00
Halifax
Vancouver
Sat, Apr 6
19:00:00
New York
Rochester
Sat, Apr 6
19:00:00
Toronto
Albany
Sat, Apr 6
19:30:00
Las Vegas
Georgia
Sat, Apr 6
20:00:00
Calgary
Saskatchewan
Sun, Apr 7
16:00:00
Philadelphia
Panther City
WK
20
Fri, Apr 12
21:00:00
Philadelphia
Colorado
Sat, Apr 13
19:00:00
Rochester
Toronto
Sat, Apr 13
19:30:00
Calgary
Buffalo
Sat, Apr 13
20:00:00
San Diego
Saskatchewan
Sat, Apr 13
22:00:00
Colorado
Las Vegas
Sat, Apr 13
22:00:00
New York
Vancouver
Sun, Apr 14
16:00:00
Albany
Panther City
WK
21
Fri, Apr 19
19:30:00
Rochester
Georgia
Fri, Apr 19
22:00:00
Vancouver
San Diego
Sat, Apr 20
18:00:00
Colorado
Halifax
Sat, Apr 20
19:30:00
Albany
New York
Sat, Apr 20
20:00:00
Toronto
Saskatchewan
Sat, Apr 20
21:00:00
Panther City
Calgary
Sat, Apr 20
22:00:00
Buffalo
Las Vegas
Sun, Apr 21
15:00:00
Philadelphia
Rochester
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By The Numbers: 2015 Nll Standings

It’s no secret that sports fans consider close games that come down to the wire to be the best. The unpredictable outcome paired along with instantaneous joy or heartbreak are what make the games so exciting. The win-loss column doesn’t care how the outcome of the game came to be, just that one team won and the other didn’t. Sports are made on this concept, but it’s hard to analyze teams based on their win-loss record along, and that too is no secret. If a team is constantly losing close games, they may not be bad, but unlucky. As much as sports fans think everything happen for a reason, a lot of outcomes are based on luck, especially in small sample sizes.

Here are the current NLL league wide standings headed into Week 15:
 

Team Record Win Percentage
Toronto 11-4 0.733
Edmonton 9-4 0.692
Rochester 9-4 0.692
Colorado 8-6 0.571
Buffalo 7-7 0.500
Minnesota 5-9 0.357
New England 4-8 0.333
Vancouver 4-9 0.308
Calgary 4-10 0.286

By removing all one-goal games, we leave games that were clearly won by one team, though we cannot take the larger scale randomness out of the games. All wins and losses will be by at least two goals, with all empty-netters removed.
 

Team Record One Goal Wins One Goal Losses Record Without Win Percentage
Edmonton 9-4 2 3 7-1 0.875
Rochester 9-4 3 2 6-2 0.750
Toronto 11-4 6 2 5-2 0.714
Colorado 8-6 2 0 6-6 0.500
Buffalo 7-7 3 3 4-4 0.500
Calgary 4-10 1 6 3-4 0.429
Vancouver 4-9 0 2 4-7 0.364
Minnesota 5-9 1 1 4-8 0.333
New England 4-8 2 1 2-7 0.222

This chart helps us have clearer picture of who is clearly winning and losing games, and which teams may be lucky/unlucky late in games. Interestingly, this chart can tell us something about the seasons of Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton.

Toronto has been on top of the standings and the NLL Power Rankings on IL Indoor pretty much all season, due to significant additions to their defense, breakout offensive players in Rob Hellyer and Brett Hickey, and above far average goaltending (Rose and Miller are ranked second and fourth in the league in save percentage respectively). These factors are enough to justify Toronto’s success, but it’s good to look at the chart above to keep their success so far, in context. They are the league leaders in one-goal games by twice the amount of the next team team. Without those games, they still sit near the top of the standings, but are no longer the runaway leaders.

When we look at the Calgary Roughnecks, we see a much more positive spin on the season than the regular standings have told. In this scenario, they would be in a playoff spot ahead of Vancouver. Luck has not been on their side (six one-goal losses), with their goaltending performing far below average early in the season.
 

SV% Game Result Decision
0.647 1 14-18
0.622 2 16-17 L
0.600 3 8-16 L
0.769 4 11-12 L
0.750 5 14-15 L
0.755 6 9-13 L
0.735 7 16-13 W
0.767 8 11-12 L
0.788 9 12-11 W
0.667 10 7-13 L
0.836 11 20-9 W
0.792 12 10-12 L
0.824 13 8-9 L
0.735 14 14-9 W

Calgary’s rough start goaltending-wise dealt them a blow, but the numbers have since recovered, partly thanks to Frankie Scigliano’s play, and partly because it’s hard to sustain numbers that bad for a long time. They still aren’t near the top of the league in this category, but compared to their start, average netminding is a meaningful improvement. Without having to worry about goaltending, it’s hard to count the Roughnecks out at this point. They only sit half a game back of Vancouver for the final playoff spot in the West Division, and pose a big threat to both Edmonton and Colorado if they were to get Calgary in a playoff matchup.

In our new chart, Edmonton is the top team in the league with seven wins and one loss. This stays true when you look at goal differential as well.
 

Team GF GA Goal Differential
xEdmonton 180 125 55
xToronto 191 159 32
Rochester 142 129 13
xColorado 174 168 6
Buffalo 167 171 -4
Calgary 170 179 -9
New England 133 159 -26
Minnesota 145 176 -31
Vancouver 162 198 -36

Edmonton is not just winning, but they’re winning by the largest amount of any team out there. At this stage of the season, they’re playing like the best team in the NLL, and have shown it by winning five games in a row. The Rush defense is deadly, only allowing three goals to the Rochester Knighthawks two weeks ago. That game helped to bring their goals against average to 11.4, the lowest in the league. The Rush’s offensive output is also the best, averaging 13.8 goals per game, thanks in part to a franchise record-breaking year from Mark Matthews has 85 points (38+47). They have also had significant help from Robert Church (30+38), Zack Greer (33+29), and the rookie Ben McIntosh (25+35). All four forwards sit in the top 16 in league scoring, with eight other players in the mix who have played more games.

The final chart also shows some unfavorable results for Vancouver, which averages over 15 goals against per game. It’s tough to score more than 15 goals per game consistently, so it’s very important for them to make some defensive changes if they are going to fend off Calgary for the last playoff spot in the West Division. Having Tyler Richards out doesn’t help their cause right now.

NLL Week 15 features six games this weekend so we will have an even better idea about which teams are the contenders and pretenders headed down the final stretch of the regular season in the quest for the Champion’s Cup.

By Mike Wilson (@RushBeat) for NLL.com.

NLL